Canada Housing Market 2012 Forecast

Strong market fundamentals will help the Calgary housing market in the period ahead, says the 2012 Housing Trends & Affordability Document released today by RBC Economics Research.

Canada’s housing market posted moderate gains in 2011 The home resales statistics by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed that Canada’s housing market continued to advance at a healty pace at the start of 2012. Home resales rose for the fourth consecutive month in December, climbing 1.8% from November to a healthy tally of 476,900 units (seasonally adjusted and annualized). With the further reversal of part of the hefty property appreciation registered late in 2010 and early in 2011 in the Vancouver and, to a lesser extent, Toronto markets, the average price of homes sold on the MLS® system in Canada fell for sixth time in eight months. The national average price (seasonally adjusted) eased 0.9% in December on a month-to-month basis. The year-over-year increase moderated to just 0.9% (using unadjusted figures), thereby representing the smallest such gain since October 2010. Excluding Vancouver and Toronto, the national average home price rose by 0.8% from November to December and 3.7% from December 2010. 

For 2011 as a whole, home resales totalled 457,700 units in Canada, up 2.2% from 446,900 units in 2010. This was slightly below the 10-year average of 460,200 units, which indicates little in the way of market activity running either too fast or too slow. Overall, the Canadian market remained balanced with the sales-to-new listings ratio at 0.53 – close to the middle of the 0.40-0.60 range within which neither buyers nor sellers have the upper hand – and the number of months’ supply essentially remaining unchanged at 6.1. In December, the number of months’ supply edged slightly lower to 5.8 from 5.9 in November. Such balanced market conditions in 2011 sustained moderate price increases with the annual average national price rising 6.8% in 2011, the same rate of increase as in 2010. Excluding Vancouver and Toronto, properties sold on the MLS system in all other markets saw modest price gains of 4.1% in 2011, which was less than the long-term average of 5.3%. 

Vancouver home prices posted the most significant increase among Canada’s largest urban centres for the second straight year in 2011, rising by 14.3%, following an even stronger gain of 15.5% in 2010. Well behind, last year, was Toronto with an annual price increase of 7.6%, just slightly ahead of Regina at 7.3%. All other major urban centres showed smaller rates of increase than the national average. Edmonton prices fell for the third time in the last four years. 

Disclaimer: Information herein deemed reliable but not guaranteed by CREB®.

Listing information last updated on July 25th, 2017 at 4:30am MDT.